Analysis of Competing Ideas
INTL402 Job 2
INTL402 вЂ“ Cleverness Analysis
20 Sept 2013
Examination of Rivalling Hypotheses
Summary of the Cleverness Question:
Is going to Syrian Director Bashar Al-Assad honor his agreement together with the International Community to remove the Syrian chemical guns arsenal? What started like a peaceful demonstration during the Arab Spring of 2011, quickly escalated in to violence as Syrian govt forces taken care of immediately pockets of hardened protestors with severe and deadly force. This kind of caused the protest to turn in a negative direction, marking the beginning of the Syrian Civil War. Since the preventing continued between the Syrian authorities forces and the newly formed rebel forces, consisting of defected Syrian military members and regular citizens, substance weapons were introduced in to the battlefield. This kind of resulted in heightened international interest and a call for the demise of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad from the Usa, France, Israel, and other nations. On the other side, The ussr and Iran opposed any kind of military action against Syria, specifically with out United Nations authorization. Thus a worldwide debate began. With the U. S. for the brink of executing an exact military strike against Assad, Russia as well as the U. S i9000. met to propose a diplomatic alternative. Subsequent to the meeting, the two nations created a plan to remove and ruin Syria's chemical substance weapons software without the hassle a reach. The U. S. decided albeit, still vocalized that military actions is still a chance if Assad fails to follow through with the process. The sole question now is, will Assad hand over Syria's chemical guns program, and in accordance with all the shortened timeline?
H1: Assad will completely turn over the chemical weapons program. H2: Assad does not turn over the chemical weapons program.
H3: Assad turns on the portion of this program, but not in its entirety.
Proof to support H1:
E1: Director Assad shipped a list of Syria's chemical weaponry stockpile, getting together with the initially deadline decided in the Structure for Reduction of Syrian Chemical Weapons. 1 E2: Assad publicly proclaimed absolute, wholehearted support to cooperate in removing Syria's chemical weapons program2 E3: The danger of U. S. armed service strike in case the conditions in the agreement are not met. a few E4: Assad has been a advocatte for a Central East clear of weapons of mass damage and chemical substance weapons since he 1st propositioned the United Nations in 2001. four E5: Before the chemical guns attack, Syria was in negotiations with regional countries to route an all natural gas pipe out of Syria. This move is viewed as economically viable for Syria and can be argued that it is imperative Assad works together with the intercontinental community in order to avoid being branded a conflict criminal. a few Evidence against H1:
E6: Because the Syrian government techniques chemical weapons around the nation to and from locations previously undisclosed as storage areas it provides into question Assad's motivations and possible indicates a great unwillingness to fully comply with the identification and removal process. 6 E7: Normally, a nation provides 60 day time to adapt the assertion of guns, however , the Assad program was given 7 days. Then, Assad has to have the entire chemical weaponry program eliminated by early 2014. Assad has already verbalized the difficulty through this compressed schedule and explained it will take well over a year to complete. 7 В E8: Assad's routine possesses the chemical weaponry as a indicate to balance power using its enemies whom also have such weapons. The 2 nations of Israel and Saudi Arabia include yet to ratify the 1993 Chemical Weapons Meeting. Additionally , non-state actors including the Syrian rebels and their helps are evaluated to have chemical substance weapons. eight E9: Removing Syria's...
Bibliography: Cook, Jonathan. " Israel's chemical arsenal under new scrutiny. вЂќ Al Jazeera News, September 20, 2013. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/09/2013918 131913662278. html
Heuer, Richards L. Jr. Psychology of Brains Analysis. Buenos aires, DC: Middle for study regarding Intelligence, 1999.
Syrian Chief executive Bashar Al-Assad, interview by Charlie Flower, CBS News, September 12, 2013. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505263_162-57602177/exclusive-charlie-rose-interviews-syrias-president-bashar-assad-full-interview/
Office in the Spokesperson
Schofield, Matthew. " Syria transforms over list of chemical arsenal in initial step of disarmament. вЂќ The McClatchy Company, Sept 20, 2013. http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/09/20/202801/syria-turns-over-list-of-chemical.html#