Fao Agriculture Prospect - Sugars

 Fao Culture Outlook -- Sugar Essay

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020 © OECD/FAO 2011

Part 6

Glucose

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six.

SUGAR

Marketplace situation

The world sugar marketplace continues to experience considerable value volatility. The world indicator value for uncooked sugar seen a succession of peaks and downwards corrections this season before leaping to a 30-year high of UNITED STATES DOLLAR 36. 08 cts/lb (USD 795. 4/t) in Feb 2011. Marketplace fundamentals driving a car volatile rates were significant global glucose deficits in the previous two periods and unfavorable weather in many countries that reduced the size of the predicted rebound in production to raised prices (Figure 6. 1). World glucose stocks, which in turn had already been drawn straight down, fell to their lowest level in 20 years in 2010-11, supporting higher along with more unstable market prices. International sugar prices are required to ease back over the remainder of 2011 and into 2011/12, as creation responds all over the world to the latest high rates and the global balance goes into a bigger surplus which allows the start of inventory rebuilding.

Projection highlights

G

The natural sugar cost (Intercontinental Exchange No . 10 spot, balloon, Caribbean ports) in nominal terms is projected for nearly CHF 408/t (USD 18. 5 c/lb. ) in 2020-21. This is below the historical peak in the beginning of the Perspective, but prices are expected to stay on a bigger plateau and average larger in actual terms (when adjusted to get inflation) above the projection period, when compared with the final decade. White-colored sugar prices (Euronet, Liffe, Contract Zero, 407, London) follow a related pattern and therefore are projected to get to USD 508/t (USD 23cts/lb. ) in 2020-21, while using white sweets premium narrowing with larger export amounts to common above USD 90/t over the coming ten years (Figure 6. 2). Brazil's sugar production, as one of the cheapest sugar makers with extensive capacity to expand sugar walking cane area over a large scale, along with the projected development in ethanol production, will probably be key determinants of global sugar production, which is projected to get to over 209 Mt in 2020-21. Govt policies that intervene in sugar marketplaces, and development cycles in some major walking cane producing countries of Asia, will carry on and influence community sugar creation and selling price volatility above the longer term. Community sugar consumption is anticipated to grow for a lower typical rate above the longer term reacting to higher rates to reach 207 Mt in 2020-21. Shares should restore in the around term, but the stocks-to-use percentage is anticipated to average reduce over the approaching decade than in the previous a decade, providing support for higher prices (Figure 6. 3).

G

G

120

OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL PROSPECT 2011-2020 © OECD/FAO 2011

6.

SUGARS

Figure 6. 1 . Community sugar harmony moves in to surplus

World sugar creation less ingestion

Mt l. s. e. 15

10

5

zero

-5

-10

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

3 years ago

2008

2009

2010

2011

Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

1 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932426885

Figure 6th. 2 . Globe prices to decline but to remain on a higher plateau Evolution of world sugar prices in nominal (left figure) and actual terms (right figure) to 20201 Uncooked sugar USD/t 700 600 500 4 hundred 300 2 hundred 100 0 1990 White colored sugar USD/t 700 600 500 500 300 200 100 0 1990 Uncooked sugar White colored sugar

95

2000

2006

2010

2015

2020

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Notes: Raw sugar world selling price: ICE Inc. No . 10, f. um. b., bulk spot selling price, October/September. Refined sugar price: White Sweets Futures Agreements, No . 407, Euronext market, Liffe, Greater london, October/September. 1 ) Real sugar prices happen to be nominal universe prices deflated by the US GDP deflator (2005 = 1). Origin: OECD and FAO Secretariats.

1 a couple of http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932426904

OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL VIEW 2011-2020 © OECD/FAO 2011

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six.

SUGAR

Marketplace trends and prospects

Prices

World sugar prices will be projected to decline from...

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